Field report · v1 · June 2026
The Future of Work
As of July 2026 · global labor market · always free
The ladder is breaking. Proof of skill is the new currency.
The apprenticeship rung that turned juniors into seniors is being automated at the bottom. That doesn't make people obsolete — it makes demonstrated capability, not years on a résumé, the thing worth hiring on. This is the bet Diiirect is built on, said out loud.
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What's changingfig. 0102 / 08
AI automates tasks, not people.
The net jobs math is still positive — the World Economic Forum projects 170 million new roles against 92 million lost by 2030, a net gain of 78 million. The money is following: even as tech cut roughly a quarter-million jobs across 2024–25, the largest cloud builders earmarked $660–690 billion of 2026 capital spending, much of it for AI — hiring isn't leaving, it's repricing. What shifts underneath the total is the shape of work: AI compresses the experience curve, so the same output now needs fewer hands at the bottom and more judgment at the top.
- roles tracked
- 18
- open postings
- 4,553
From the diiirect Talent Index
The hard partfig. 0203 / 08
The bottom rung is thinning.
Hiring demand is tilting senior. Indeed's Hiring Lab finds junior postings down about 7% year over year while senior ones rose ~4%, and the share of tech roles asking for 5+ years climbed from 37% to 42% after ChatGPT shipped. The youngest workers in the most AI-exposed jobs are the ones feeling it. What nobody can yet prove is the cause.
14 new · week of Jul 20
New postings · per week · most in-demand role in the diiirect Talent Index
The cause is contested. The squeeze is not.
the read
Stanford finds a 13–16% relative employment decline for 22–25-year-olds in the most AI-exposed jobs since late 2022 — while older workers in the same roles held steady.
The New York Fed logs recent-graduate underemployment at 42.5% — a post-2020 high — and attributes much of the young-graduate squeeze to remote work, not AI: firms stopped hiring trainees who need in-person mentoring.
The answer05 / 08
When tenure stops being a signal, proof takes its place.
If the apprenticeship that used to season juniors is automated away, years-of-experience stops telling you who can do the work. What replaces it is demonstrated, assessed skill. That's what Diiirect is for: we re-credential capability for an AI world, so overlooked talent can prove it and great teams can find it.
Supporting currents06 / 08
Three shifts pulling the same direction
You hire judgment × AI-leverage
Talent now arrives pre-amplified — 75% of knowledge workers already use AI at work, most bringing their own tools. You're no longer buying labour-hours; you're buying judgment, multiplied.
Work decouples from geography
For AI-augmented knowledge work, where someone sits matters less than what they can prove — widening the pool to the best person, not the nearest.
Engagement gets flexible
Hire in whatever shape fits — direct, agent-of-record, or employer-of-record — compliantly, across borders, without rebuilding your back office.
The data & sources07 / 08
Where this comes from
The live numbers above are from the diiirect Talent Index — built from live postings and official statistics. The macro claims are sourced from independent research — explore the instrument and the methodology behind our data, or read the originals.
WEF — Future of Jobs 2025Net +78M jobs by 2030 (170M created, 92M lost); 40% of employers expect AI-driven cuts.www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobs-report-2025
Stanford — Canaries in the Coal MineA 13–16% relative employment decline for the youngest workers in the most AI-exposed jobs.digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publication/canaries-in-the-coal-mine-six-facts-about-the-recent-employment-effects-of-artificial-intelligence
Indeed Hiring Lab — Experience requirementsJunior tech postings down ~7% YoY; 5+ years now demanded by 42% of roles, up from 37%.www.hiringlab.org/2025/07/30/experience-requirements-have-tightened-amid-the-tech-hiring-freeze
New York Fed — Recent GraduatesRecent-grad underemployment at 42.5% — the case that remote work, not AI, drives much of it.www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market
McKinsey — State of AI65% of firms now use gen-AI in a function; hiring shifts to skills over credentials.www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-state-of-ai
IMF — AI & the Future of WorkAbout 40% of jobs worldwide are exposed to AI — roughly half augmented, half at risk.www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity
OECD — Future of WorkPolicy frame on AI and automation exposure across economies.www.oecd.org/en/topics/future-of-work.html
US BLS — Employment ProjectionsOfficial occupational growth and decline projections.www.bls.gov/emp/data/occupational-data.htm
Anthropic Economic IndexOpen, task-level data on how AI is actually used at work.www.anthropic.com/news/the-anthropic-economic-index
Microsoft — Work Trend Index75% of knowledge workers use AI at work; most bring their own tools.www.microsoft.com/en-us/worklab/work-trend-index/ai-at-work-is-here-now-comes-the-hard-part
Crunchbase — AI funding 2025AI took ~$211B — about half of all venture — in 2025; the Bay Area drew ~60%.news.crunchbase.com/ai/big-funding-trends-charts-eoy-2025
Layoffs.fyi — Tech layoffs trackerLive tracker of tech layoffs — the cuts running alongside the capex boom.layoffs.fyi